Glorious Goodwood Day 4 Pointers

Cavalryman won the big race of the day yesterday as we had thought he may do, with the doubts of the big two materialising. COuple of hard luck stories elsewhere on the day and we will be looking for a strong penultimate day at the meeting.

Here are our thoughts on each race today:

1.55 1m 4f Class 1 Coutts Glorious Stakes – 

Cafe Society silk

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 CAFE SOCIETY 7/1 (Sky Bet money back if the favourite wins)
 
A horse that won for us earlier thios season, he takes a big step up in class here but is worth having a go on as you get the feeling we are are yet to see the best of this horse. Probably should have won a Listed race at Ascot last time over 2 furlongs shorter. Not always the easiest to win with but looks good value in this.
 
 
 
 
Rapprochement silkRAPPROCHEMENT 8/1 EW (member's tip from last night)

A very interesting contender with Godolphin pitching him at this level after smashing the field in a maiden at Newbury despite being green in the early stages, recording a good time in the progress. This is a big step up against more experienced rivals but we think it is worth taking a chance on the unexposed horse as could be top class.

3.05 1m 0f Class 2 Betfred Mile – 

Magic City silk

 MAGIC CITY 10/1 EW.

Almost selected last night as a members tip and we do fancy to run well as this looks a realy good opportunity for a revival.Three times course winner and caught the eye last time out finishing 2nd at Salisbury by a length.

3.40 5f Class 1 Betfred King George Stakes – 

Moviesta silk

 MOVIESTA 8/1 EW.

Past winner of this race, and although hasn't quite fired yet this season in a handful of starts should be bang on here after a couple of race over 6 furlongs.

4.15 6f Class 2 Betfred Supports Jack Berry House Nursery –

Magical Memory silk

 MAGICAL MEMORY 9/1 EW

Bit more well raced than a few of these and although as a result looks a tad exposed can put that race experienmce to good use here.Disappointed last time out at Newbury but if can shrug that off looks primed for a big run here judging on earlier efforts.

4.50 7f Class 1 LOrmarins Queens Plate Stakes – 

Muteela silk

MUTEELA 3/1 (Member's Tip from last night)

It won't come as much of a surprise that we have selected this horse again for regular followers of VHT. Had it ear marked as one of our horses to watch at the start of the season, although we will probably admit we wern't expecting it to be running in a Group 3 race at the start of August. Has progressed at a rate of knots and hopefully can take this step up in class in her step.

5.25 1m 3f Class 3 Betfred Mobile Handicap – 

Artful Rogue silk

ARTFUL ROGUE 10/1 EW

Still a maiden but still yet to see best and caught the eye when running well last time finishing 2nd to Emmulating at Kempton. Cheekpieces are on and with track experience and SDS booked a big run looks on the cards.

Posted in VHT Tips

Glorious Goodwood Day 3 Pointers

Yesterday was a tough day from the Goodwood blog, we secured some value selections but the results did not go the way we had hoped and we will be looking for much better today. It's hard to be profitable on every day of the big meetings and a blip is understandable. Good luck today whatever you are backing!

These are our thoughts for day 3 at Goodwood:

2.05 1m 1f 192yds Class 2 Fairmont Handicap – 

Astronereus silk

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 ASTRONEREUS 15/2 EW.

Rainbow Rock ran very well for us when winning last time out and we did like today but were hoping for a bigger price running from out of the weights. Instead, we have gone for the most unexposed horse in the race in the shape of Amanda Perrett's representitive.Looks to have been given a very workable opening mark and should improve a fair chunk today from what we have seen to date. Hopefully can get us off to a winning start on the third day.

2.35 6f Class 1 Qatar Bloodstock Richmond Stakes – 

Ivawood is a very short price here, and although we wouldn't put you off having a bet, it's too short for us to advise anything else.

3.10 2m 0f Class 1 Artemis Goodwood Cup – 

Cavalryman silk

 CAVALRY MAN 11/2 EW.

Many have this down as a Brown Panther/Estimate showdown and we think the Godolphin representative has possible been overlooked here by many. Both the front two in the market have their doubts and will have to show their best again if they want to come out on top and our selection can be sure to run his race.Impressed on all three starts this season.

3.45 1m 6f Class 1 Sterling Insurance Lillie Langtry Stakes – 

Stella Bellissima silk

 STELLA BELLISSIMA 7/1 EW (member's tips from last night)

Showed a good attitude to win a Newbury maiden and it is fascinating to see John Gosden put in at this level second time up. Should be suited by the step up in trip and looks worth having a go with, with the price starting out more generous than we had anticipated.

4.20 7f Class 2 EBF British Stallion Studs New Ham Maiden Fillies Stakes – 

Thunder In Myheart silk

 THUNDER IN MYHEART 7/2.

An interesting 2yo contest and one where there are sure to be plenty to keep an eye on. The one we like is Thunder In Myheart who ran well on debut finishing off well and is sure to have taken a lot out of that race. Jamie Spencer takes over in the saddle today.

4.50 7f Class 2 Tatler Handicap – 

Ifwecan silk

 IFWECAN 9/1 EW (Member's tips from last night)

We are keen on both the Johnston horses that run here but slight preference for Ifwecan over Almargo. The selection was impressive on penultimate start and now dropped down to 7 furlongs can make a bold bid to make all from handy draw.

5.25 1m 1f Class 3 Qipco Apprentice Handicap – 

Jodies Jem silk

JODIES JEM 9/1 EW.William Jarvis having a good spell currently and we fancy his representative to go well in the last.Dropped back down to a decent mark and was well fancied last time when was a little unlucky and if can build on that should go close today.

Posted in VHT Tips

Goodwood Day 2 Pointers

It was a successful first day at Goodwood with two winners and two 2nd places for VHT followers, although the dynamic of the day would have been different if Ajman Bridge had battle off the attentions of the gritty Sennockian Star, and despite trading 1/33 in running came up short. Both short priced favourites of the day got turned over and what appeared a tough day for most went down successful in our eyes.

Good luck today however you use the selections:

1.55 Goodwood Stakes (Handicap) – 

Lieutenant Miller silk

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 LIEUTENANT MILLER 10/1 EW (Sky Bet offering money back if the favourite wins)

Maid In Rio is hard to oppose but does look a little under priced currently at 11/8 and with the Sky Bet offer is worth taking on. Lieutenant Miller has been a regular selection for us in the past and should run another good race today in our eyes.Ran a creditable seventh at Ascot last time and this doesn't look quite as tough from 1lb lower in the ratings.

2.30 Neptune Investment Management Gordon Stakes (Group 3) –

Somewhat silk

 SOMEWHAT 4/1 (Members tip from last night)

The first of two selections that was sent to members last night and our strongest fancy for the day as a result.Selection has come back as a 3yo and run some decent efforts in defeat but likely to see the best now stepped up in trip.Yard had a good day yesterday and will be looking to get a winner on the board on Day 2

3.05 Qipco Sussex Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) – 

This should be a fascinating race but not one from a betting opportunity view so we wouldn't advise anything here. Fully expect Kingman to beat Toronado but price is too short to back. For anyone determined to have a bet the forecast of Kingman/Toronado pays 1/2 with bet365.

3.40 Veuve Clicquot Vintage Stakes (Group 2) – 

Pallister silk

 PALLISTER 12/1 EW.

Improved at a rate of knots and this is a big ask to step up into this grade but there is nothing in terms of price that tempts us in here.Step up in trip should suit and likely to give a brave performance. Consider backing your place bet with betfair in case there is a NR you do not want to miss out on the third place pay out.

4.15 Markel Insurance Maiden Fillies' Stakes – 

Touchline silk

 TOUCHLINE 4/1.

A fascinating newcomer who we realy like the look of and the little bit of market support sways us into being more confident Michael Bell representitive.Ticks the boxes on paper and with Moore on board should give a good account of herself first time up.

4.50 EBF Stallions Breeding Winners Fillies' Handicap – 

Principle Equation silk

 PRINCIPLE EQUATION 6/1 EW.

Water Hole would have been a fascinating proposition here and we were very close to tipping last night had the price been bigger so the withdrawel completely opens up the field here.Selection steps up in trip for handicap debut and with SDS on board looks a good thing.

5.25 Turf Club Handicap – 

Little Shambles silk

 LITTLE SHAMBLES 16/1 EW.(Members tip from last night)

The second of two selections that was sent to members last night and our strongest fancy for the day as a result.Should relish ground conditions and can bounce back to form despite the draw.

 

Posted in VHT Tips

Goodwood Day 1 Information

Five days of top-class racing begin today at Glorious Goodwood and it promises to be a cracking week of racing with the sun expected to shine down. Goodwood is generally accepted as one of the most picturesque racecourses in the UK and we will be very jealous anyone who will be lucky enough to be in attendance! We have brought you our Day 1 thoughts and pointers on action, trying to find a spot of value where we can. Feel free to follow our selections exclusively or let them sway your mind in a particular race, and whatever you back good luck!

1.55 1m 1f 192yds Class 2 bet365 com Handicap – 

Ajman Bridge silk

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AJMAN BRIDGE 10/1 EW. 

Still relatively lightly raced but gives the impression has bigger races in him.Unlucky not to win last time at Newbury in a slightly lesser event and although has to step up to the mark here, looks to have the ability to do so.Fitness should be bang on after a couple of runs this season and Buick booked to ride today.

2.30 1m 1f 192yds Class 2 bet365 com Handicap –

Cotai Glory silk

CATAI GLORY 7/2 (Sky Bet offering money back if Beacon wins)

Beacon won for us last time in ultra impressive fashion last time out and is deservedly odds on in this however we would rather oppose today with Sky bet offering money back if Beacon wins. Our selection has had a busy year and will be suited by dropping back to minimum trip.Mukhmal is expected to do better if he can settle better today and has the hood on to do exactly that.

3.05 7f Class 1 bet365 Lennox Stakes – 

Toormore silk

TOORMORE 2/1.

Selected last night as one of the members tips. Two NR's this morning means it is disappointingly less of a contest.Probably looking at a 20p Rule 4 so that 2/1 now more like 13/8.

3.40 1m 6f Class 2 bet365 Summer Handicap – 

 CONTINUUM 11/1 EW.(Paddy Power offering money back 2nd or 3rd)

Won a competitive renewal of listed event at York last time and just 2lb higher here can be expected to give his running if the headgear is as effective second time around.

4.15 6f Class 2 bet365 EBF Maiden Stakes – 

Mutafarrej silk

 MUTAFAREREJ 12/1 EW.

Caught the eye on both starts to date and with that experience can put it to good use here. Always prefer to find one with racecourse experience and with the switch to this track a positive can figure.

4.50 1m 0f Class 3 bet365 Handicap – 

 EXTREMITY 6/1 EW.

Our 2nd members tip sent last night. Been well backed into around the 4/1 mark currently.

5.20 5f Class 3 Casino At bet365 Handicap – 

APRICOT SKY 16/1 EW
 
With the withdrawal of Barnet Sky this morning it has really opened up this field and looks a very trappy handicap. Selection caught the eye last time out when tried over this trip traveling strongly into the race. Should have learnt a lot from that and may just sneak in here.
 
 

Posted in VHT Tips

Noble Mission fails to fire as Taghrooda shines

The day of the King George & Queen Elizabeth Stakes had arrived. Earlier in the week Gosden supplemented Eagle Top for £75,000. Pittance to connections but still note worthy & had me scratching my beard for a moment. Although impressive in the King Edward at Ascot last month, the step up to group one company would be tough, & taking on this field would be a stiff task. A good representation of experienced runners & Gosden bringing the youth with the three year oldsTelescope opened up 9/4 after looking real handy at Ascot last month & fluctuated all week to go off 5/2. Leitir Mor made the running & set a decent gallop. Everyone comfortable with sitting in behind the pace for a good way out. Coming round the bend for home Leitir Mor faded quickly as the race began to unfold. Jo got to work on Magician, but to no avail as the unsuitable ground sapped his pace. Telescope, Mukhadram  Taghrooda all kicked on in the final stages. Telescope & Mukhadram were matched for pace, crying out for the line as Taghrooda kept finding more to surpass the pair & score by three lengths. Gosden's supplemented runner gave it a fair go, running on well from the back of the field to finish behind the leading trio. 

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Lady Cecil had a host of interesting runners on Sunday including her impressive Nobel Mission who took to the turf in Germany. Stepping back to a mile & a quarter, & continuing to contend in group one company, bookmakers took no chances offering odds on, for the five year old to get the job done. After being pipped on the line last time out in France, after an impressive run from the front it seemed like this was his for the takingFate was cruel to Noble Mission as he was pipped on the line again, this time to Lucky Lion who faced Sea The Moon last time & was no match. The lightly raced Pension Plan set out at Ascot & was backed into 5/2 going off favourite. With Moore on board it looked promising & was going well until Double Bluff kicked on for home only to be charged down by top weighted, Pallasator. Moore couldn't galvanise Pension Plan & finished up fourth. Good Value also looked promising throughout, but when the race opened up, failed to materialise. The two unbeaten runners, RedKirk & favourite, Agent Murphy kicked on for home with Redkird stealing the thunder, showing some impressive closing pace. A bit of a disappointing day for Lady Cecil drawing a blank but some nice indicators to take note of from this weekend's racing. 

Posted in Ciaran Judge

King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes Preview

The flat season enters a new phase this weekend and we have our first real opportunity to decipher the strength of the 3 year old middle distance division, as the likes of Taghrooda and Eagle Top take on their elder counterparts in the 64th running of the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot on Saturday. 

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For the first time in 3 years, the trophy will not be heading back to Germany as Danedream and Novellist are now busy breeding superstars of the future. This year, the home team look to have the greatest chance with the market seeming to suggest a dual between Sir Michael Stoute’s Telescope and John Gosden’s classic-winning Taghrooda 

The aforementioned pair were both hugely impressive when destroying their rivals in their most recent outings. The former produced a breath-taking display when taking the Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) here by 7 lengths last month; and the latter was by far the best when maintaining her unbeaten record in the Oaks. 

Stoute has always spoken very highly of his 4 year-old colt, who will be ideally suited by the good-firm ground. However, 9/4 in a race of this magnitude for a horse who has never tasted group 1 success seems rather uncharitable for me to be rushing to back him. Similarly, the Oaks form of Gosden’s filly is by no means bullet-proof with the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th on that day all being beaten since. At odds of 11/4 I’ll be looking to take on the daughter of Sea The Stars, too. 

Magician will be looking to pull something out of the hat for Aidan O’Brien after a pleasing effort behind The Fugue at the Royal meeting, though his overall profile tells a story of inconsistency. 6/1 looks attractive if he’s in the right mood – but it’s a very big ‘if’. 

While Mukhadram and Trading Leather (both 12/1) deserve plenty of credit for their respective 1st and 2nd in the Coral-Eclipse, the principles in that contest didn’t run to form. Kingston Hill was racing on the wrong ground over an inadequate trip, and The Fugue had run just 17 days previous. William Haggas’ 5 year-old was 2 lengths ahead at Sandown, though preference this time would be for the Godolphin owned Trading Leather, who can reverse the form over this longer trip. However, the feeling is that their battle could be taking place somewhere in midfield. 

Despite not being a huge believer in market stats, knowing that the last 3 winners have returned between 5/1 and 10/1 has only strengthened my confidence behind Gosden’s so-called second string, EAGLE TOP. On just his third start, the 3 year-old showed a clear pair of heels to the highly-rated Adelaide in the King Edward VII Stakes here. He did so in a time 3 seconds faster than Bracelet, who won the filly’s equivalent and has since been victorious in the Irish Oaks. His Newmarket trainer would not have supplemented him for the race to make up the numbers. In fact, Nathaniel was also a late entry when winning for the same handler in 2011. William Buick’s course and distance winning mount is likely to improve again and can return the 5/1 winner.

Posted in George Wells

Why Most Horse Racing Punters Lose and How To Win Consistently

There is an age-old saying: information is power, power is money. So how does this relate to horse racing and in particular betting on horse racing? Well – information is the difference between winning and losing consistently. Consistent winners on the horse race track have information that the losers do not. These punters that consistently win at the races have professional research, industry contacts and a wealth of shared knowledge at their disposal to assist in betting. Their punts are carefully thought out after taking into account all the available information. So how do you become a consistently profitable punter at the race track? You make sure you have the information that the consistent winners do. Horse race betting is not rocket science after all.

There are two main ways to acquire quality information for horse race betting: subscribe to horse race tipping communities and services or do your own research. Both have their weaknesses and strengths as a betting strategy. Subscription horse tipping services and communities are popping up all over the world. In the United Kingdom, there is of course reputable services like our very own team here at Value Horse Tips. The tipping industry is well developed in Australia too with subscription communities including Equus Racing horse tipping community gaining massive followings. The United States has too many tipping services to even attempt to list. Canada and New Zealand, while not the size of the Australian, United States or United Kingdom horse tipping communities, have seen rapid developments in the horse racing tips industry over the last five years.

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The benefit of horse tipping communities is in the information they provide their members. Utilizing years of experience, extensive research and inside information from industry contacts, horse race tipping services give you the power of information. Reputable communities and tipping services have proven consistent win rates and are profitable. The other way to consistently win at the races is to do your own research. Without doing research before you bet on the horses, you are gambling blindly and will end up like the majority of punters – losing the lot. In addition to researching the horse, trainer and jockey, you also need a wide understanding of horse betting. The two main categories are straight bets and exotic bets. The best way for a new punter to horse race betting to get their feet wet is to go with straight bets. You need to familiarize yourself with the common terms of horse racing wagers.

Having the right knowledge in combination with the right research, equips you with a better chance of winning the bet. Ensure you take the time to learn the basic of horse betting to make your punting more profitable. The problem with doing your own research is that you don’t benefit from the pool of experience and inside industry contacts that most horse tipping services utilize. At the end of the day, for most people it is just simpler and more time effective to get their tips from a professional tipping service and community.

Posted in Guest Posts

Irish Oaks Preview

By George Wells

This year’s renewal of the Irish Oaks appears to be an open contest given that it’ll be without the expected star attraction. We’ll have to wait another week to see John Gosden’s Epsom Oaks conqueror as Taghrooda looks set to have a crack at the King George at Ascot. Nevertheless, this Saturday’s 1m 4f Curragh classic can still boast some meritorious contenders.  

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Regardless of the result, it’ll be a day to remember for the in-form O’Brien family. Ana, daughter of trainer Aidan, will become the first female jockey to ride in the Irish Oaks. Her mount, Beyond Brilliance, is one of five entries for the Irish champion trainer who is bidding to win this race for the first time since 2008. However, the chances of a red-letter day for the teenager are slim, the Holy Roman Emperor filly looks to have it all to do with an official rating of just 95.  

Bracelet, ridden by Colm O’Donoghue, is a more interesting contender for Ballydoyle; coming off the back of a hard fought Ribblesdale Stakes victory at Royal Ascot when getting the better of Lustrous. The pair aren’t without a chance, though the colts’ equivalent race at Ascot was run approximately 3 seconds faster which is enough to put me off backing either of them.  

Epsom rivals Tarfasha (2nd), Volume (3rd) and Marvellous (6thwill all have another shot at Oaks glory. With just a nose between the former pair, and the track appearing not to suit the latter, there are no guarantees that they’ll pass the judge in the same order this time around. Dermot Weld’s Tarfasha looks destined to start as the favourite, currently best priced at 5/2; while Volume and Marvellous can be backed at 11/2 and 5/1 respectively. At the prices, Luca Cumani’s filly looks the most appealing of re-opposing trio with the assumption that the Irish 1,000 Guineas winner has a preference for cut in the ground.  

At odds of 11/2, it could be worth taking a chance on another of O’Brien’s quintet, TAPESTRYHer Curragh record would read 3 wins from 3, but for a photo-finish falling in favour of Rizeena in last year’s Moyglare Stud Stakes. However, Joseph O’Brien’s mount has not set the world alight in 2014; a year she began by finishing last of 17 – when sent off the 4/1 favourite – in the 1,000 Guineas. Despite a better effort subsequentlyCoolmore’s filly could only manage 6th in the Coronation Stakes.  

Those form figures certainly don’t jump out of the page, though the more recent effort was better than the bare form implies and the most intriguing aspect of her challenge undoubtedly hinges around the distance, as the daughter of Galileo races beyond a mile for the first time. If her stamina can hold out, I’m confident she has the class; but it’ll take a well-timed ride from her young jockey, who has every reason to be brimming with confidence. 

Posted in George Wells

Cavalryman springs a shocker

Sir Michael Stoute sent his lightly raced 4 year old, Arab Spring to Newmarket during the week. Following an impressive effort landing the Duke of Edinburgh stakes at Ascot last month, a first time attempt in group one company was earnedNo one wanted to make the running, but Cavalryman unwillingly obliged, & led shortly after the gatesMoore seemed to be travelling well on Arab Spring just tracking the leader, but when asked to quicken up, there was no sparkle of the horse we saw last month. The rain had been falling all morning & got into the ground quicker than the going-change had been declared. This could have taken the sting from Arab Spring, but I don't think excuses can be made, given the gutsy front run from Cavalryman who boasts an impressive resume, including success in the Dubai Gold cup in 2013 & runner up in 2014. Stamina prevailed on the day, but a funny old race all in all with the veteran taking the prize for Saeed bin Suroor  

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Saturday at Newmarket we had the Darley July Cup & another day littered with non-runners. Slade Power headed the betting at 7/4 on the back of a notable win at Ascot last month. Noozhoh Canarias was highly fancied with a bit of interest. On the back of his 6th in the 2000 guineas, looked to be open to improvement, which the market supported. relatively open race that could have gone either way, but a late surge from Slade Power & the race was put to bed. No one could catch the favourite chased home by 66/1 Tropics & 12/1 Gregorian.

Posted in Ciaran Judge

Saturday York Selections & Pointers

A sunny day in Yorkshire and I will be attending York racecourse and thought it would be worth sharing my thoughts on the afternoon's racing as I have gone through the racecard in fine detail in hope of a decent day out! If you use the blog to help you pick out a few selections or follow them in full then good luck!

 

1.40 1m 0f Class 2 John Smiths Racing Handicap – 

Silk

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ALFRED HUTCHINSON 10/1 EW (bet365 paying 5 places for each way bets).

A typical Saturday York opener with the bookies looking to get off to a winning start. Alfred Hutchinson is the one that ticks plenty of boxes and has a C&D victory to his name.Both recent runs has given a great run for money at this venue and looked a little unlucky. Has a decent draw today and if can avoid traffic should hopefully atleast place.

 

2.20 1m 6f Class 1 John Smiths Silver Cup Stakes – 

Silk

WAILA 9/4.

Fitness should be cherry ripe after two runs this time around. 2nd to a decent one in a Pontefract Listed race last time and really interesting now stepped up in trip. Looks one to get stuck into.

 

2.55 1m 2f 88yds Class 2 55th John Smiths Cup – 

Silk

BOLD SNIPER 5/1.

Another that is bang in form with a couple of good efforts and has sights lowered here after latest 2nd at Ascot.Should enjoy this fast ground and give an excellent run for money.

 

3.30 5f Class 1 John Smiths City Walls Stakes – 

SilkG FORCE 7/2.
 
This contest looks between the two marklet principles with the selection the pick as has more scope for improvment and with a C&D win to name where was very impressive can get back on track today and get head back in front on the way to better things.
 
4.05 6f Class 3 John Smiths Median Auction Maiden Stakes – 
 
SilkMATTMU 11/2 EW.
 
Expect the favourite to be a warelections concistency to date an EW bet looks a solid option.2nd behind a really useful sort last time and now stepped up in trip to 6f after 3 runs can eek out further improvment.
 
4.40 2m 0f 88yds Class 3 John Smiths Stayers Handicap – 
Silk

TAPPANAPPA 8/1 EW

Really interestring contender now strating out for the Michael Appleby yard and from this mark is clearly well handicapped. Can be a bit of a monkey but with hood on today and coming back from a break I really fancy him to run a big race.

Will also be keeping a close eye on Knightly Escapade and if drifts out to a decent price on course will have a little nibble as won with plenty in hand for us last time out in a minor contest.

 

5.15 6f Class 2 John Smiths Nursery – 

Silk

BILLYOAKES 6/1 EW.

Certainly not overly convinced by the favourite in this given the manner of the disappointment last time out Haydock.Had excuses and may bounce back to form so dodging with an EW bet on Billyoakes under Atzeni.Has to prove gets this fast ground but indications would suggest he will and can run well again today after just the two racecourse starts.

Posted in VHT, VHT Tips
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