Kingston Hill Powers Home in Classic‏

With an exciting weekend of St Ledger action across the UK & Ireland, it spells the beginning of the end for the flat season. Leading Light was a hot favourite In Ireland, coming off the back of impressive success in the St Ledger trial & Ascot Gold Cup. Perhaps an off weekend for O'Brien as one of the field proving too good, in the form of Brown Panther. The seven year old, owned by Michael Owen won in spectacular fashion. After following pacsetter, Eye Of The Storm to a fair distance from the rest of the field, Kingscote took Brown Panther on to win with Six & a half lengths to the good. This impressive performance marked the first group one success for Brown Panther. 

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The English St Ledger was headed by Kingston Hill. Quite a weak favourite, available at 9/2 at one point late morning. Closer to the off Kingston Hill's price soon began to shorten before going off at a solid 9/4Granddukeoftuscany made the running at a steady pace until the closing stages where the race began to unfold. Snow Sky & Kingston Hill challenged from outside, but Snow Sky couldn't really see out the trip. Kingston Hill surged on to challenge Romsdal & score by just over a length to mark Rodger Varian's first classic success. 

last year's Ark winner Treve set out at Longchamp to get her credentials back in check. Treve went off at an unreasonable 4/5 & only managed to finish fourth behind 22/1 shot, Baltic Baroness. Another week passes & another shake to the Ark. German Derby winner, Sea The Moon is ruled out & misses the rest of the season with injuryWith Treve beat & looking a shadow of her former self, the main movers over the weekend were Kingston Hill from 12's into 10's & Ruler Of The World, 16's into 14's. After losing his mount on last year's Ark winner, Frankie Dettori wasted no time wallowing, & guided the O'Brien trained four year old to victory at Longchamp seeing off Fabre's Flintshire by 1 & 1/2 lengths. 

 

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St. Leger Stakes Preview

A cracking weekend lays in wait, with first class racing taking place on either side of the Irish Sea. Australia, Tapestry, John F Kennedy, Cursory Glance, Leading Light & Gleneagles will all be in action on Irish soil over the next 36 hours, while Doncaster can boast star guests such as Estidhkaar and Kingston Hill. The latter looks set to go off favourite when the gates open at 3.50pm for Britain’s oldest Classic, the St. Leger Stakes, after his trainer Roger Varian confirmed his inclusion on Friday afternoon.

The 238 year old contest is run over a demanding distance of 1 mile, 6 furlongs and 132 yards, offering no hiding place for horses without stamina in abundance.

A healthy looking 14 colts are primed in what’ll be a larger field than each of the last five renewals, all being well. Messieurs Gosden and Johnston are responsible for almost half of the runners, each with three entries. John Gosden’s trio appear to be spearheaded by Derby third, Romsdal (7/1). William Buick’s selection flopped last time out in the King George, though a return to his best form over this longer trip would make him a live contender. The same trainer has booked Frankie Dettori to ride the lightly campaigned Forever Now (16/1) who is improving steadily, but will need to again to enter the equation.

Mark Johnston’s first string is a little more difficult to gauge, with Joe Fanning sticking with Hartnell (14/1), who we know stays and had looked very progressive until a tame Group 2 effort last time. Silvestre De Sousa’s mount, Alex My Boy (20/1), is not without hope too, though. Some smart handicap form was followed by a short-head defeat by Forever Now in a hot Listed race, arguably his best effort to date. You couldn’t even write off Somewhat at 40/1, who despite being inconsistent has run some huge races this year – most notably his third in the King George.

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Richards Hannon & Hughes have suffered rotten luck this year with Windshear (7/1), who has finished 2nd in each of his last four races. He has been finishing off his races well at around a mile and a half, so the extra distance may help. However, when you consider that he was beaten over two lengths by Hartnell on his penultimate start, it’s difficult to see why he is half of his price.

The most recent horse to deny Richard Hughes and Windshear was Snow Sky (11/2) who, for my money, won’t stay the trip. He beat Somewhat by a neck and a head last time on a downhill track over 12 furlongs, with Windshear splitting them. .. I’ll leave you to work out which of those three represent the best value!

For me the race revolves around a horse that, on his day, is in a different class to his rivals. KINGSTON HILL (7/2) has had just three races this year, two of which were over highly inadequate distances. The other saw him chase home the mighty Australia in the Derby (with Romsdal over three lengths back in third.) I have since been left disappointed, having backed him for both the Irish Derby and the Voltigeur Stakes, only for him to be withdrawn from both due to quick ground.

With Andrea Atzeni back on board and Varian happy with the state of the ground, I think 7/2 is a very attractive price. I also wouldn’t be surprised if some bookmakers look to take him on at some stage and push his price even higher, so if you want to back the son of Mastercraftsman keep your eyes peeled!

Posted in George Wells

Arc market begins to crack

All eyes were on Sole Power on Saturday, & rightly so after winning impressively last time out after running into some trouble. Hughes had claimed before the race that the extra furlong would present no problem to the Power's seven year old, who is now 0-8 over 6 furlongs. O'Meara's G Force proved too good for the field seeing out the race in style kicking on from the rest just getting up to deny last year's winner, Gordon Lord Byron. Sole Power is likely to head to Prix de L'Abbaye next month & back to his optimum trip of five furlongs.  

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Klug, trainer of Arc favourite, Sea The Moon sent his star for a run before the big event. Klug warned punters before the race, the horse was "not 100%" but was fairly confident they would be celebrating another group one success. Sea The Moon set a steady gallop & led from the off. When asked for more in the closing stages there was no response after making the running. Ivanhowe proved in-form after powering past the leader. Connections of Ivanhowe are now considering sending the newly listed group one winner to the Ark to take on the stars. Bookmakers boldly axed Sea The Moons price righout to 8/1 from 7/2. Making way for new favourite, last year's winner Treve who dropped a point in price to go 4/1. Come October at Longchamp Sea The Moon will likely get idea conditions with some give in the ground & 8/1 is fantastic value for the German Derby Winner.   

Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (5th October): 9/2 Treve, 8/1 Taghrooda, 8-1 Australia, 9/1 Just A Way, 9/1 Avenir Certain, 10/1 Sea The Moon, 11/1 Harp Star, 20/1 Gold Ship (EW 1/5 Odds Places 1,2,3)

Posted in Ciaran Judge

BETFRED SPRINT CUP PREVIEW

betfred sprint cup - value horse tips horse racing blog

This afternoon’s Betfred Sprint Cup is the pick of a fantastic day’s racing which also includes the Bristol Handicap as well as three Group 3s. The 6f, Group 1 contest at Haydock Park has a fascinating look to it on paper. The sprinting sensation of the season and defending champion are just 2 of the 17 that head to post at 3:50pm. 

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Pearl Secret (28/1) was back in form when fending off late challenges in a Listed event most recently, although the plum draw at Beverley was to his advantage on that day and the step back up in class and the extra furlong are likely to catch him out. Qatar Racing may well have better claims with Hot Streak (22/1). The apple of Kevin Ryan’s eye has arguably disappointed since his emphatic Temple Stakes success, though I’m convinced the speedy 3 year is a future Group 1 winner. Evidence so far, however, suggests it’s more likely to come over the minimum trip and preferably with some cut in the ground. 

Tropics (11/1) is another who comes in off the back of a Listed win. That said, Dean Ivory’s stable star’s most impressive performance was his penultimate 2nd to Slade Power in the July Cup. If he can reproduce that form, he’s sure to be on the premises. 

Music Master (7/1) got up in the dying strides over the same trip at Newbury in July, with Es Que Love (20/1) back in 3rd. The latter has franked that form since, though my feeling is that the pair may just be a little out of their depth here.  

A duo of Irish raiders head the market, with last year’s winner Gordon Lord Byron sitting behind Sole Power at 6/1 and 3/1 respectively. Tom Hogan’s gelding has an impressive record at the track, however unlike last year, his recent form has been patchy; though the most recent 2nd was a step in the right direction. 

Eddie Lynam’s veteran sprinter has had a summer to remember and is a worthy favourite in his bid for a hat-trick of Group 1s. His recent success is largely thanks to some vintage riding from Richard Hughes, who seems the perfect fit. The greatest concern revolves around the distance, with all of his best form coming over 5f. The son of Kyllachy is renowned for his breath-taking turn of foot, which will be slightly blunted over this extra furlong. I wouldn’t be surprised if Hughes pulls off another Houdini-esque miracle, but my head is telling me to look elsewhere. 

A length and three-quarters behind Sole Power – despite finishing 9th – in the Nunthorpe Stakes on just his 3rd start was COUGAR MOUNTAIN (12/1) under Joseph O’Brien, who will certainly appreciate the step back up to 6f. Having won on his belated debut in June, Aidan O’Brien wasted no time in introducing him to Group 1 action so he’s clearly held in high regard. The Nunthorpe effort was preceded by a very promising 5th in the July Cup, and with those experiences behind him, the Fastnet Rock colt can improve beyond his rivals at very attractive odds. 

Posted in George Wells

GIMCRACK STAKES PREVIEW

A mouth-watering card at York this afternoon will sign off another remarkable Ebor meeting. Our hearts were warmed as local father and daughter, Kevin and Amy Ryan, opened their account in the very first race. We’ve witnessed another dominant display from the brilliantly versatile Australia in the JuddmonteTiggy Wiggy showed both class and determination when making all in Lowther Stakes. Then, we were left gobsmacked, when Taghrooda failed to fend off a late challenge from Tapestry in the Yorkshire Oaks. Finally, we saw Richard Hughes produce one of the finest examples of jockeyship you’re ever likely to see as he weaved through the Nunthorpe Stakes field on Sole Power yesterday. With the final chapter still to be written, I can comfortably say that this year’s Ebor meeting will remain one of my fondest memories of the sport. 

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Given that 22 line up in the Ebor Handicap, it will hardly come as a surprise to you that I’ve chosen to preview the Gimrack Stakes instead! With The Great War sadly missing out, 10 juveniles go to post in for the Group 2 contest over 6f.   

Tommy Stack doesn’t usually come across the Irish Sea just for a holiday, so he must be expecting big things from his unbeaten raider, Accepted (13/2). Having won on debut at The Currugh, he showed a most willing attitude to take a Listed contest at Tipparary last time over 5f. This longer trip will suit, but he simply hasn’t shown the level of form that some of these have as yet. The other two contenders looking to maintain their unbeaten records are Fendale (9/1) and Glenalmond (20/1), and whilst they have shown clear promise, similar comments can be applied. 

Jungle Cat (8/1) has been a model of consistency for Mark Johnson in his career to date, and since winning his maiden in good style at Goodwood, has placed in Group 2 company on three occasions. He has to be the each way bet of the race at that price, though he may yet again be following home one, or two, of Richard Hannon’s inmates.  

The Wiltshite trainer is a man whose opinion I’m sure you’d love to hear. He saddles both Baitha Alga (3/1) and Beacon (7/2).  With such little disparity in their price, and the fact that Frankie Dettori is retained for Al Shaqab Racing – meaning Richard Hughes has no choice but to ride Beacon – it’s difficult to gauge who the stable fancies most. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Richard Hannon himself wasn’t 100% sure who the more likely winner would be. One thing I am reasonably confident of, is that one of the will win!  

Baitha Alga has not been seen since his ultra-impressive Norfolk Stakes victory at Royal Ascot over 5f. Having already proven himself over this longer trip, he has fewest questions to answer. Though Beacon has never been this far his breeding and form suggest he’ll improve for it. Despite the 3lb penalty, my slight preference is for Frankie Dettori’s mount, BAITHA ALGA. The way he swept past the strong field at Royal Ascot is too difficult to ignore, and having been given a short break, is sure to improve again. Having said that, I wouldn’t discourage anyone that fancied the Hannon pair in a reverse forecast! 

Peter Chapple Hyam’s season has threatened to revive his career; the likes of Arod and Inchilla have come close to landing big prizes that would put the dual Derby winning trainer back on the map. He runs Ahlan Emarati (14/1), who also has the potential to win a big race and a return to 6f should benefit him. Although, there is little to sugest he can reverse the Norfolk Stakes form with Baitha Alga.

 

Posted in George Wells

Hardest Core snatches Million from Magician

Late on Saturday Night, some of you will have caught up with exciting cards the states had to offer in ArlingtonAdelaide, was amongst those who travelled the four & a half thousand miles to make their mark on US soil. The home team's main threat came in the form of Tourist, who has won his last three starts on turf. Set off at odds-on, Adelaide was nestled in third until asked to reel in front running Tourist. Adelaide idled slightly out in front, but a driving ride from Moore ensured O'Brien's three year old got the job done. In-form Moore had a successful trip, all in all, churning out a second winner with Euro Charline. Who possibly ran his last race for Marco Botti before starting his career in the US with Todd Pletcher. 

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Magician made a bold bid to take the Arlington Million under Joseph O'Brien. Last year's winner, Real Solution was popular with punters looking past Magician, who eased in price before the off. Joseph held a good position in behind the leader, but got to work on magician a fair way from home. In the straight for home Magician & Side Glance fought for the line, but an impressive surge from the outsider, Hardest Core was too much for the pair as they couldn't peg him back. Hardest Core with no grade one experience, missed the American St. Leger in order to take on the Arlington Million. 

On Sunday, John Gosden sent his number one to Deauville for the Group one, Prix Jacques Le Marois. Gosden claimed Kingman had travelled well & his only concern was the ground becoming "very heavy". With no overnight rain on Saturday, Sundays conditions were changed to soft from very soft. Kingman was declared to run as planned. As expected, no one could present a challenge worthy of Kingman, Doyle gave the command, Kingman obliged. Hannon's, Olympic Glory & Dettori were as short as 7/2 to turn over Kingman, who proved too good18/1 shot Anodin chased Kingman home, 2 & 1/2 lengths behind.  

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HIGHFIELD FARM FLYING FILLIES STAKES PREVIEW

Sunday racing in the UK is often of a very disappointing standard, which has always confused me; fortunately Pontefract hosts a very competitive Listed fillies’ 6f contest at 3.45pm, a welcome relief from Class 6 handicaps!  

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Ladies Are Forever (5/1) brings the best form into the race, having already won Listed and Group 3 races this term. Danny Tudhope’s mount seems equally effective over both 5 and 6f and her more disappointing recent efforts have been in Group 2 company. At this level, you’d expect Geoffrey Oldroyd’s 6 year old to be right in the mix; though she does carry a 7lb penalty for her troubles.  

Current favourite, Hoodna, could only manage 12th of 24 in the Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood last time out, but had some solid placed efforts in handicaps before that. At odds of 3/1, the Saeed Bin Suroor-trained filly doesn’t particularly catch the eye; considering she’s never won a race on turf.  

VALONIA has been well backed this morning, however 9/2 still represents decent value for the filly that comes out best at the weights, according to the official ratings. Her most recent 4th in the Oak Tree Stakes was a cracking effort, beaten just a length and a half. Her handler, Henry Candy, is in rude health at the moment and the drop back to 6f will be no problem, especially with the stiff finish here. 

It’d be naïve to underestimate the chances of Spinatrix who, despite not winning since last August, has arguably been in the form of her career. Michael Dods’ sprinter only ran yesterday, and though she ran a super race to finish 2nd, that has to be a concern. 

Athenian (12/1) has a very impressive strike rate of 37.5%, having won 6 of her 16 races, and it’s never easy to ignore a Sir Mark Prescott runner. However, she has a bit to find with the principles and her most recent 9th at Newmarket in lesser company is difficult to get excited about. Most of the others will have to bounce back from poor efforts to get competitive, so here’s hoping Valonia and Harry Bentley with be surging up the hill to take the prize.

 

Posted in George Wells

ROSE OF LANCASTER STAKES PREVIEW

George Wells

We have another busy weekend of flat-racing action upon us with Shergar Cup day at Ascot; as well as an excellent card, incuding the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes, at the Curragh on Sunday. The race I’ll be previewing, however, is today’s Group 3 Rose of Lancaster Stakes at Haydock Park at 2:55pm.  

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The Merseyside track has played host to some strong, competitive races over the last two days; and the highlight of the meeting’s final day should be no different. This year’s renewal fascinates me, with various form channels on show providing an intriguing puzzle.  

The current favourite, at around 7/2, is Sir Michael Stoute’s 4 year-old Hillstar. Few will deny that it’d be a deserved success for the son of Danehill Dancer should he get his head in-front, after finishing runner-up on each of his last three outings. All of those efforts represent rock-solid form, especially the most recent in which he split a pair of subsequent Glorious Goodwood winners in the Princess of Wales’ Stakes at HQThe concern for Ryan Moore’s mount has to be the drop back in distance to the extended mile and a quarter, given that all of his best efforts over the last two seasons have been at a mile and a half or beyond.  

Nabucco (8/1) was giving away 3lbs to both Amralah (10/1) and Vancouverite (5/1) when finished 3rd behind that pair at Newbury; but meets them at level weights today and there may not be much between that re-opposing trio. Preference would be for the Godolphin inmate, Vancouverite, who was lacking race fitness on that occasion. Charlie Appleby’s lightly-raced colt ran creditably in a couple of Group 1’s in Dubai, and we may not have seen the best of him yet.  

Danadana (11/1) has to put a poor run in the York Stakes behind him if he’s to feature under Andrea Atzeni, while Ismail Mohammed’s Educate (6/1) brings some decent handicap form to the table and is the selection of the Value Horse Tips boys today, picking up 7/1 last night, and must run well too. 

TRUE STORY (9/2) is without doubt the most interesting of the 3 year-olds – who are all in receipt of 9lbs from their elder rivalsSaeed Bin Suroor, who won this in 2012 with Hunter’s Light, has endured a frustrating season with the once Derby ante-post favourite. A shock defeat in the Dante was followed by a modest 7th in the Derby; though his Eclipse fifth was certainly a step back in the right direction. The trip looks perfect, providing the pace is true; and if Kieren Fallon can get him to settle early, I can see him proving too strong for his eight rivals in this lesser grade. 

Posted in George Wells

No Hush Gesture Required

It's been an almost exasperating week of racing, with Goodwood & Galway taking centre stage for Britain & Ireland. I can't refrain from highlighting the marvellously talented Kingman. The Hannon/Hughes camp knew they were up against it, but had their own cards to play in the shape of Toronado. Both had their own ideas about how the tactical affair would pan out. O'Brien's Darwin set a slow pace from the off, with Toronado on his outside. All the while, shadowed by Kingman & Outstrip. The race remained quite still, each patiently ridden until the closing stages & the race began to unfold. Toronado was the first to break for home. Shortly followed by Doyle's command upon Kingman. Hearts sank as Doyle, visually on to Kingmanwith no response. Toronado continued to kick on, as Kingman changed his feet & found the rhythm to produce that blistering turn of foot. With the post looming, Kingman pegged back Toronado with every stride to take command of the mile. Gosden revealed plans for Kingman in the not so distant future. "He's in the Prix Jacques Le Marois, which comes up pretty quick on August 17, but the QEII at Ascot has always been the big, big target, and we'll keep winding it back from there."  

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On Sunday, Sir Michael Stout sent Integral to Deauville, with Moore booked for the ride. From a gambling angle, there wasn't much to play with at 8/13. But, it suggested Integral would see out the job. Miss France was amongst the four runners for the home team & it was interesting to see how she would fair after winning the 1000 Guineas 3 starts ago. Another tactical affair that got off to a slow pace, nothing separating odds-on favourite from the 12/1 outsider. L'Amour De Ma Vie & Integral made up the front as stable mates, Miss France & Esoterique sat in behind. All equally travelling well throughout. Coming into the closing stages nothing split the quartet as Miss France & Esoterique joined to present their challenge. The less fancied of the Fabre pair Esoterique, showed an impressive turn of foot to put the race to bed. Chased home by Miss France, relegating Integral into 3rd of the four.  

Posted in Ciaran Judge

NASSAU STAKES PREVIEW

The curtain comes down on Glorious Goodwood for another year this afternoon, and it’s a little disappointing that the 3:15pm 1m 2f Nassau Stakes is to be contested by just 7 horses, without a Group 1 win between them. That said, we should see a competitive race and it’s difficult to completely discount any of the contenders. 

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John Gosden has saddled the previous two winners of the race, and has both Eastern Belle and Sultanina bidding to make it a hat-trick. The former has steadily improved with some solid Maiden and Listed form to her name, though the sharp rise in class is likely to prove too difficult. William Buick has opted to ride Sultanina, who lost her unbeaten tag when finishing runner-up to yet another classy stablemate, Pomology, in the Group 2 Lancashire Oaks over a mile and a half. The main concern is the drop back in trip, as she needed every inch of the 12f at Haydock when winning the Pinnacle Stakes two starts back. 

French raider NARNIYN is a very interesting contender for Alain de Royer-Dupre and Christophe Soumillon. She pieced together a four-timer before finishing a respectable 4th in the Group 1 Prix de Saint Cloud just over a month ago and that form is just about the best on offer. She has never raced without ‘soft’ somewhere in the going description which may put some punters off. However, purely on pedigree, there is no obvious ground preference. The daughter of Dubawi will certainly not be inconvenienced by the forecast rain but should the track remain good-firm, her price of 7-2 still looks appealing to me.   

The biggest danger to the selection is likely to be Aidan O’Brien’s inconsistent Venus de Milo. The Irish handler seems to have finally decided her ideal trip, after a decent effort to finish 2nd in the Pretty Polly Stakes on her most recent outing. That was another relatively weak Group 1, but a repeat of that effort should see her make the frame at leastMango Diva is another in with a shout, though it’s hard to get too excited about her form. I tend to think Sir Michael Stoute’s filly will be relying on below-par performances from the others at the head of the market if she’s to follow up her narrow Kilboy Estate Stakes victory, while Amazing Maria and Lustrous need to bounce back from tame efforts in the English and Irish Oaks respectively. 

Posted in George Wells
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