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Sire De Grugy heads the betting ahead of Saturday’s Horse Racing Celebration Chase at Sandown and he is a very warm favourite with William Hill at 1-3. The winner of  three Group 1’s this season including the Queen Mother Champion Chase is strongly fancied to add another jewel to his crown as the season’s leading two-mile chaser. Seven horses will oppose the Gary Moore-trained star, including Claret Cloak and Special Tiara his nearest rivals in the betting at 8-1.

“If Sire De Grugy gets round safely, he looks pretty unbeatable. It would take a career best effort from one of his rivals – or a monstrously bad run from the Champion Chaser – to see any other result,” said William Hill spokesman Jon Ivan-Duke. “Claret Cloak might just be the one for each-way punters assuming all eight stand their ground.”
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Bet365 Celebration Chase: 1-3 Sire De Grugy, 8-1 Claret Cloak, Special Tiara, 14-1 French Opera, Pepite Rose, 25-1 Kauto Stone, 40-1 Australia Day, Lancetto, (EW 1/5 Odds Places 1,2,3)

When the favourite loses generally the bookmakers win and win more. The horse is the favourite because it has been supported and has received the most bets and most money placed on them.  
 
You can see by the table below the % of winning favourites throughout 2012. You can see that the winter months were better for favourites than the summer, but taking the year as a whole the average was at 34.41%.  
 
2012 FAVOURITES  
December 39% 
November 33% 
October 31% 
September 32% 
August 34% 
July 32% 
June 33% 
May 35% 
April 33% 
March 35% 
Feb 38% 
Jan 38% 
 
So around 65% of favourites lost. So you could argue that the bookmakers are not very good at predicting winners! But as we know there is more to them shortening and lengthening prices.  
 
So how can we benefit from knowing that on average 65% of favourites lose? The way you can do it is to write down all the favourites over all the meetings, and add up the % that each favourite currently offers in comparison to the rest of the book.  
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So you may have the 1st race where the total book % is 120% and the favourite is at say 5/2 (28.57%), and on the 2nd race the total book % is 110% but the favourite is 3/1(25%).  
 
Race 1 8 run (5/2) 28.57% 
Race 2 7 run (3/1) 25.00% 
Race 3 11run (7/4) 36.36% 
Race 4 8 run (6/4) 40.00% 
Race 5 16run (7/1) 12.50% 
Race 6 9 run (4/1) 20.00% 
 
When you have these percentages written down across ALL THE CARDS and side by side it becomes much easier to see and read weak favourites, compare and contrast as they use to say in your school exams.  
 
When you are armed with the above stats and knowing that on a regular 6 runner race card a maximum of 3 favourites are going to win at a particular meeting it becomes easier to intuitively see what is happening, although do be aware that one 1 day 6 favourites could win on a race card and the next day 0 favourites win on a race card.  
 
These stats are just the starting point on your laying quest and further investigation is always needed but by utilising some of the processes bookmakers use you can reap some of the benefits and betting offers.

Author: www.freebetbonuses.co.uk

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Every year the nation decends upon their local bookies or online bookmaker to have a punt on the Grand National, it is almost a rite of passage for the UK public. One thing that people can agree on when it comes to this 4m 3f marathon race, is that it is a gamble on the day and any horse has a chance when it comes down to it. However, using past statistics to rule out horses and help you make decisions has always been the best way to do it in our eyes, and last year we picked out the 2nd & 3rd place horses, only to be foiled by the 66/1 shot. This year we will be looking to go one better.

The statistcal trends that we look for when picking our horses are the following:

– Carrying between 10 and 11 and a half stone

– Between the age of 9 & 11

– Rated above 135

– Had at least one run over the Grand National fences

This narrows the field down to 11 horses, and from these we have picked our stongest fancies which are the following:

• BALTHAZAR KING 20/1
• THE PACKAGE 25/1
• THE RAINBOW HUNTER 33/1

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 – There are three bookies currently paying 6 places for EW bets and these are Betfred, Bet Victor & BetBright

– BetBright are offering a risk free £20 when signing up. If your bet loses they will refund your losing bet, simple! For existing BetBright customers they are offering money back for 2nd places.

– Paddy Power are offering all customers who sign up today and tomorrow if they bet £10 on the grand National, they will instantly receive an extra 4x £5 free bets to wager on the race.

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Good Luck!!

Day 1 at Aintree flew past with a couple of decent results for punters, The New One eeked out a win to give punters a huge sigh of relief and Silviniaco Conti and Warne, two well fancied horses also went on to win at the Merseyside Racecourse.

We have had a few requests to put together our fancies for Day 2, so we have listed below our top bets for the day as well as a potential few to keep an ee out for. There are a few offers out there worth taking advantage of, but they will come into play more on Day 3 at over the feature race of Day 3, The Grand National.

2.00 2m 0f 110yds Class 1 International Festival For Business 2014 Top Novices Hurdle.

Josses Hill brings the form to beat into this, 2nd at Cheltenham in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle and is a worth favourite but we would advise casting your eye over the Nick Williams trained Amore Alato, the top weight in this.He finished behind Irving at Kempton last time and should be in the mix at the end, and 14/1 we feel is too big for chances.Several firms doing 1/4 odds for 3 places EW so be careful.

2.30 3m 1f Class 1 Betfred Mobile Mildmay Novices Chase.

Holywell was extremely impressive at Cheltenham, and has now won three on the bounce. Handicapper has had his say but may just have more to come. Worth taking advantage of offers for 2nd place and money back if the fav wins (betfair) to give you a bit of insurance for this bet.

3.05 2m 4f Class 1 Betfred Melling Chase.

Most are in with a shout here but we have sided with Wishful Thinking now back up in trip after competing in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham where finished with running. Has a decent record round this venue and should be thereabouts at the finish. We would advise ew bet at around 13/2.

3.40 2m 5f 110yds Class 1 Crabbies Supporting Everton In The Community Topham Chase.
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We will be avoiding the 3.40 from a betting point of view. We are keeping an eye on Ma Filleule after Cheltenham exploits though at around 14/1 may be worth a shout

4.15 3m 0f 110yds Class 1 Doom Bar Sefton Novices Hurdle

Beat That is our sole selection from our Evening TIps, sent out last night at 9/1. We are expecting improvement from Nicky Henderson's horse now stepping up in trip.

4.50 2m 4f Class 1 Alder Hey Childrens Charity Handicap Hurdle 

Attaglance 9/1 EW. A horse that has not been as best as when in heyday but is better over hurdles than fences so interesting returned to the smaller obstacles for this.Won at the festival 2 years ago from a 1lb lower mark and looks worth a chance today.

Cheltenian 11/1 EW.Came in for plenty of money at Cheltenham but ruined his chance but worth another chance now upped in trip.

5.25 2m 1f Class 1 Concerto Group Mares Standard Open NH Flat Race.

Will be avoiding thr bumper which looks competitive, and the market should open up clues closer to post time.

WARREN Greatrex is keeping his fiingers crossed that Tranquil Sea makes the cut for the Crabbie’s Grand National 2014 at Aintree on Saturday 5th April.

The 12-year-old is creeping closer to getting a run in the world’s most famous steeplechase, but is still some way off that.

“Tranquil Sea is still in the Grand National and now has only 15 to come out to get a run,” Greatrex said.

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“This is still unlikely but we will keep him in and see what happens. He is in good form.”

Tranquil Sea showed an liking for the unique and infamous Aintree fences in two runs when trained in Ireland by Edward O’Grady, finishing third in Grand Sefton Handicap Chase in December 2012 and sixth to Triolo D’Alene in last season’s Topham Chase. Although returning to winning ways at Doncaster in February, his first ever over 3miles, he was subsequently pulled up before the final fence of the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival jockey Jamie Codd, which has dented the horses chances at a stab at the Grand National. Greatrex has said that he would be delighted just to see his horse line up in 40 strong line up on a week Saturday.

Grand National Market Moves: Teaforthree 8-1 from 10-1, Balthazar King 25-1 from 33-1, Same Difference 33-1 from 40-1, The Rainbow Hunter 33-1 from 40-1