Haydock’s Sandy Lane Stakes is the race I will be focussing on this week and on paper, it looks a good Class 1 event. 8 are entered in this stakes clash over in Liverpool so each way players may be able to get their 3 places. PARBOLD for me, sets the standard, I was very impressed with his run at HQ where some would argue he was denied a clear run in a race he was sent off favourite and the drop back to 6f is very interesting. He won his maiden on soft ground at Ascot and was third to Astaire in the Group 2 Gimcrack last year; so the ground isn’t too much of a concern. Form behind Shifting Power, Toormore and War Command, this horse has been challenging with this best last year and the year very much rate him. The form behind Shifting Power is the interesting one because on that day, he gave AELOUS, 10lbs, and was beaten by a length.  Off level weights at Newmarket last time out, Parbold, even with the excuses he had, seemed to breeze past the filly and I, as many, were surprised as personally Aelous was my NAP that day and she was disappointing. I expect Parbold to confirm the recent form.

Hannon’s Shamson won very well last time out, beating strong opposition, Justice Day (4th) went on to finish 4th in the Group 2 sprint event here last Saturday. Is bred to be a sprinter and is 3/3 over the minimum trip and the step up in trip especially on this ground is a strange one, if it becomes a stamina test, I think he may struggle as his only time going over this trip, albeit in stronger Group company, he faded badly in the final furlong. It is worth noting Dettori has always ridden this horse but the decision of Richard Hughes to take the Aelous ride would be a concern too. Last time out Shamson gave One Chance 10lbs and still was able to win the race impressively, One Chance prior to that encounter was beaten 5l by Mick’s Yer Man receiving 3lbs. There is no doubt Mick’s Yer Man is the most improved horse in this field having been raised 27lbs over the spring and I feel this progession and with improvement still likely, he could confirm that form with Shamson over his optimum trip.

BeTimes won a maiden at Lingfield over the winter and the form has been nothing short of embarrassing especially on the turf, the second Outbacker has came last 3 of his last 4 and no horses have come out of that with a rating over 80. Out of New Approach and trained by John Gosden with powerful connections, it stacks up on paper and her run in the 1000 Guineas wasn’t great, the ground was too firm for her but even so, she would have to improve massively to be anywhere near Parbold but with progression more than likely and unexposed over this trip and ground, she has each way claims.  No Leaf Clover represents the unbelievable form of the Greenham this year with a Guineas winner, an Irish Guineas winner and fantastic 7l romp victory yesterday for Master Carpenter has confirmed what a fantastic Greenham it was with Kingman and Night of Thunder. She was 8th that day on ground believed to be too quick. Last time out, she was beaten by Musical Comedy over this trip and by 3l, Micks Yer Man prior to that under similar conditions touched off Musical Comedy by a neck so improvement is needed for No Leaf Clover.

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Ben Hall won a conditions race at Lingfield but the form lacks depth, 16 times the horses behind have raced again, 4 were placed efforts but it is hard to write off anything Kieron Fallon rides at the moment. I couldn’t have Bahamian Heights at all tomorrow.

Advice: PARBOLD SP

Each Way Angle: No Leaf Clover SP

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2.15 Nottingham – 6f 15 Maiden Stakes

Following blog post is from young horse racing enthusiast Kieran Mcginley who will be bringing you his horse racing thoughts each weekend from the Value Horse Tips Blog.

Now, you may be thinking why are you previewing a Class 5 Maiden at Nottingham on a Saturday when they are some great cards on today but I play my @betref NAP in this race and honestly, its one of my strongest fancies of the month.

On social media, I have been describing a maiden that took place at Lingfield on the all-weather as the “Dream low grade maiden”, it just stood out as a phenomenal race. It was the 3^rd of March at Lingfield over 6f, won by Double Up.

Now, Double Up after the race, it was said by the trainer that he would most definitely improve on the turf and would like a slight cut in the ground, so on the soft side of the good and that’s exactly what he got yesterday on his handicap debut. He finished 2^nd in what was his first race in a handicap, first on turf and first for 2 months. It was a fantastic run and certainly boosted the form of that maiden.

The 2^nd was Willy Brennan who after a small lay off came back for a maiden at Southwell and destroyed the field and won by 7lengths, even more so boosting this form. You can discount his run at Doncaster as that was in desperate ground and he shouldn’t have really been running and finished way down the field on his turf debut.

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The 4^th in that race was BUSH WARRIOR who runs in this race today, his second start after the maiden in question.

Now if you look at that Lingfield maiden, he blew the start completely and Jamie Spencer just guided him home on his debut after he knew the race was lost. He was the eye-catcher for me. He then came out in another maiden and literally completely blew any chance of winning the race by giving the field about 15 lengths and then powered home to grab second.

That was a devastating run and one that meant wherever this horse went next; I was backing him.

He wants quick-ish ground so if the rain does fall substantially then I don’t think he will like it, but its look to be good ground. His sire is a international Group 1 winning sprinter and that breeding is pretty eye-catching in a Class 5 maiden but if he has sorted out his starting nightmares then he should win this and win it easily. Progression is sure to happen on his turf debut.

Good Luck! Kieran

Advice: Bush Warrior 7/4 (NAP)